A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
