Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
